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Prediction for CME (2023-09-14T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-14T23:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26930/-1
CME Note: Very faint CME to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2. The source is likely an M2.5 flare and eruption from AR 3429 (N10E06). Ejecta seen in SDO AIA 304 at 2023-09-14T21:54Z, and post-eruptive brightening is also seen. Post-eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 193 at 2023-09-14T22:48Z. It is possible that this CME was swept by the 2023-09-16T09:12Z CME arriving at 2023-09-18T12:58Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-18T09:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-09-15T06:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 500
Longitude (deg): 020E
Latitude (deg): 2S
Half-angular width (deg): 33 

Notes: Faint S and E heading CME seen in Lasco C2, and then discontinuous STEREO COR2. Ejecta best seen on AIA304, with dark emission seen deflected S, despite N position on disc of AR3429. Low confidence fit, consensus opinion used between MOSWOC forecasters. May be misattributed.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 67.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-09-15T13:40Z

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